BC-Clemson Preview: Groza Fever

timstwrt

i can't find a way to talk myself into a BC win...but i think a cover is likely

24.5 is a big number

the rest of my analysis of this game can probably be found re: FSU

awesome quarterback, better athletes everywhere

i mean, clemson could win the national title

percdm

oh yeah, bc is going to lose

and probably by a wide margin

the only question is how bad of a loss will it be, and how will clemson respond to the things bc actually did well against fsu

i'm curious to see if williams and the offensive line can move the ball as effectively as they did on fsu

timstwrt

prediction: no

there's no reason for clemson to do anything other than stack the box

percdm

i agree with that, but that was true of florida st too

i think you are right that clemson will be much more effective against the run, but i'm interested to see how they'll do it

and if that could actually open up some opportunities for amidon

because you know clemson will focus on taking him away on passing downs

timstwrt

amidon has averaged 32.5 YPG against USC/FSU

he's a non-factor

he's good, but the team around him isn't good enough to take any secondary attention away from him

percdm

yeah, there is no other receiver who is even remotely a threat

basically, i just want to see that the offense is putting pressure on a quality defense

and i'm hoping that clemson focusing on williams will open up some first or second down action for amidon

timstwrt

that's a good point

ryan day needs to step his game up

i don't want to tell him his business, but first down play fakes are not against NCAA rules

percdm

not even for bc? that does not match up with my fan experience

also, sammy watkins is going to torch the defense, right?

timstwrt

yeah, the secondary hasn't shown anything...it's going to be a big day for him

and tajh boyd highlights from tomorrow are going to be playing in new york during the heisman ceremony

percdm

it's always nice to get some post-season attention

timstwrt

speaking of, my plan for tomorrow would consist of getting nate freese the ball

some 55-yard tries maybe

go all in for the groza

percdm

you sound ready to start a billboard campaign

which would be awesomely sad

timstwrt

it's not every year that you can have a player join a list of the greatest names in college football history

judd davis

seth marler

bob stumwell

art carmody

percdm  

names etched in the memories of all college football fans

timstwrt 

i only made one of those up

percdm 

there is no way i could guess which one

timstwrt

and it's not interesting to do so, it's bob tumwell

percdm 

but a kicker in the nfl counts as a skill position player, right?

that'll pad the numbers a bit

timstwrt

the 2007 groza winner, thomas weber, never made an NFL team

there's got to be a story there

a really, really boring story

percdm 

all of me wishes you were not looking any of this up right now

you are just a closet groza award historian

timstwrt

thomas weber's parents are like, "well, here's what happened to tommy...never mind, no one cares about kickers"

percdm 

poor tommy, and his parents

because every now and then a kicker or punter could write something for deadspin and become a mini-celebrity

timstwrt

i see clemson 38, BC 15. five field goals and a cover

percdm 

i'm less optimistic

all-around, including freese's groza performance

clemson 45, bc 20

timstwrt

less optimistic than a 23 point loss where BC doesn't score a touchdown is off the optimism spectrum

i'm not even sure how you construe that as less optimistic

other than the spread, the difference between losing by 23 and losing by 25 is nothing4:03 PM

in your version, we score two touchdowns

that's exciting

percdm 

i think it'll be exciting for a quarter

timstwrt 

maybe one of them cuts it to 10-7 at the end of the first....that's good stuff!

percdm

i just don't think we will even cover

Political Football: Shutdown-ish, FSU recap-ish, Army preview-ish, Facts-ish

percdm

It would be refreshing (from a BC football perspective) if the ridiculousness over whether or not the game would be played during the shutdown ends up being the most dramatic part of the game

timstwrt

i don't believe that the games were ever really in danger

it was a political football. literally. get it?

percdm

i refuse to get it

timstwrt

it's because it's about politics and football

percdm

nope, still not seeing it

timstwrt

and people sometimes like to use sports metaphors in politics

percdm

our politicians are just barely not dumb enough to deny americans their football

timstwrt

there's no way the air force-navy game was ever in danger. and that nonsense about it being a defense secretary decsion?

i'm sure chuck hagel spent an afternoon in asia worrying about intercollegiate athletics

but at least the contrived drama kept our football team in the spotlight for a minute

percdm

i wish i was certain that hagel didn't spend an afternoon thinking about it

but as usual, as an afterthought

people seemed very concerned about the navy-air force game, and then oh yeah, the bc-army game

timstwrt

the obviously don't know how big this game is for me

since sitting in the stands at west point last year was my nadir as a BC fan

and the nadir of frank spaziani's life, presumably

percdm

spaz hardly even noticed

what was the final score last year?

some ungodly number of points given up to a triple option service academy is all i remember

timstwrt

34-31

percdm

ah, yes, a truly ridiculous outcome

but we have a new coach and a new defensive strategy

timstwrt

and army doesn't have jameis winston

percdm

he...wasn't bad last week

espn's recap of the game has the headline, "No. 8 FSU uses hail mary to down BC"

timstwrt

yeah, actually, i don't have anything to say about army. i hope we win. but there are a couple of things about last week's game that i'd like to document

we're coach killers generally, and people seemed upset about how the end of the first half was coached

i had no problem whatsoever going conservative and punting when we're getting the second half kick and they had roared back to tie

i thought that was the exact right play in that situation

it just turns out they have one of the best players in the country, and he made an absurd play

i can live with that

percdm

i am generally anti-conservative, and so i was against the play calling

but, as you noted, getting the ball back to start the first half changes the math a little

i would have liked to see a little aggression there, but i don't hate what we did

timstwrt

the fact that we probably don't have one player who could start for them changes the math a little too

devito, maybe

percdm

well, that's where i think it changes it towards being aggressive

you can't expect to stick with them punch for punch

so when you're in a good position, press it

bc jumped out the lead by being aggressive and taking some chances

timstwrt

we were no longer in a good position

we were hanging on for dear life

percdm

on the 40 with 1:49 left?

timstwrt

we had been up 17-3

percdm

that's a pretty good opportunity to got for a score and up at the half

timstwrt

it's also a good opportunity to throw a pick six

percdm

which would have been back breaking

like giving up a score to their explosive offense

timstwrt

just to be clear, you're trying to use odds when it's "at the 40, 1:49 left," but ignoring them when it's "QB in the grasp, no time left on the clock"

it was a once in a lifetime play....doesn't make the strategy wrong

percdm

no, that's clearing things up with a muddy rag

timstwrt

nate silver would back me up

percdm

yeah, nate loves your use of numbers here

pick six is likely, bc score is unlikely, fsu offensive score is once in a lifetime

but, let's talk about the good things

timstwrt

http://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2013/9/28/4781114/jameis-winston-hail-mary-florida-state

once in a lifetime

i was talking about good things. that was smart coaching, and the players played well

you seem to not comprehend that most other teams have beeter players

those better players are liable to win games

percdm

yeah, especially if you wait around for them to do it

timstwrt

it's how "better" works

percdm

to beat a better team, you've got to be aggressive and get lucky

not just line up and hope you somehow beat them

timstwrt

you're right, being smart isn't any part of it

percdm

it wasn't smart, it was an ok decision

timstwrt

you're categorically wrong

percdm

what's the drawback of throwing the football with 1:49 left and 15 yards from field goal position?

timstwrt

that your not-great offense either turns the ball over or gives their explosive offense the ball back with plenty of time?

and you're losing a game you led the entire half

percdm

wait, are we conflating two drives?

i think bc had the ball on the forty with like 6 minutes left

and then it was 2 runs and an incomplete pass, then a punt for a touchback

the actual 1:49 was from the 20 or so, right?

that makes sense to run the ball

we should recap on monday or tuesday...

yeah, i just checked the play-by-play

timstwrt

like i said, categorically wrong

percdm

bc had the ball at the 40 with 6:15 left

timstwrt

even i didn't know just how wrong you were

percdm

so, we definitely agree with the very end of half play calling

however, the play calling with 6:15 left was terrible

timstwrt

if you say so

percdm

2 runs for 0 yards, then an incomplete pass

followed by a punt for a touchback

timstwrt

i can't trust anything you say anymore

percdm

http://espn.go.com/ncf/playbyplay?gameId=332710103&period=2

timstwrt

but i was pleased with the way the team fought, and a couple of breaks going the other way could have led to a huge win

percdm

yeah, the team looked much better, and got some big plays

williams had a big day, which i can't remember him ever doing against a talented defense

timstwrt

i'm done here. go eagles, shut down army.

that's another clever play on current events

BC 27-10

percdm

BC 31 - Army 13

timstwrt

did you initially think 27-10 too, but changed to make it different?

percdm

i actually thought 31-10, and decided to give them another field goal...they're bad in the red zone but move the ball (my after the fact rationalization)