BC-FSU Preview: The Weekend's Most Important Questions

timstwrt

will walt jr. and skyler survive?

percdm

That's a great question. I think so, but I'm not sure

Which is also how I feel about jesse

What do you think?

timstwrt

holly is the only one i'm almost certain survives

marie would be next

i think skyler's in trouble

walt jr. i have no idea

everyone else probably dies

everyone wants jesse to survive, so he probably won't

percdm

The thing is, the family doesn't have to die for walt to lose them and fail them

timstwrt

it seems like the only punishment left for him, though

percdm

Jesse has to kill walt or die because walt couldn't save him

Right?

timstwrt

i think that jesse killing walt would be the most satisfying ending for me

percdm

But knowing that he completely faile them and that they completely reject him should be punishment enough on that front

Yeah, jesse killing him is compelling and probably satisfying

timstwrt

i don't know....walt jr. dying is probably the most excruciating thing that could happen to walt at this point

percdm

Walt jr dying because walt was trying to save jesse would be interesting

Jesse has suffered a lot, but he has also done a lot of bad shit

I know we are all rooting for him, but why?

Would jesse commit suicide in an attempt to save brock?

The more I think about it, everyone dying is too neat of a bow to put on it

timstwrt

i had the same feeling on why are we rooting for jesse, but then realized that it's just slate contrarianism

the only person jesse actively killed was gale, and that was to save walt

otherwise, his bad shit is all around the use and production of drugs

he also is the only person left with a defined moral compass

i certainly don't think he _deserves_ to live, but i think there's a clear reason to root for him

percdm

He does feel bad about the things he has done, which speaks to a moral compass

But maybe walt is just better at compartmentaizing

That's kind of bullshit...walt doesn't feel bad

timstwrt

no, he's pretty solidly unrepentant

i would not anticpiate that changing

percdm

Not everyone has to lose, only walt does, right?

timstwrt

well, and the nazis

percdm

I feel like everything shouldn't be final in the finale

Why do the nazis have to lose? They're just criminals being criminals

timstwrt

the show's about consequences, so the nazis aren't going to just get away with their reign of terror and continue building a meth empire

percdm

I mean, they're ruthless and their nazis, so we hate them

But wouldn't a ruthless nazi meth empire be a huge consequence of walt's actions?

Ruthless nazi meth empire is one of the most enjoyable phrases I've ever typed

timstwrt

but that assumes a walt-centric universe

i guess i could see todd living and becoming the new heisenberg, but the rest of the nazis are definitely doomed

percdm

I partially agree with the walt-centric universe sentiment

But my problem is that if everyone gets their come uppance in the finale, then its too tv show

timstwrt

well, it's a tv show

percdm

Then bad in the world of breaking bad is vanguished, and what we watched was merely a bubble of evil that collapsed on itself

timstwrt

i agree that everything shouldn't tie up neatly, and won't

i don't think that that'

s true

lydia works for a global corporation

bad is everywhere

some nazis getting destroyed by a machine gun doesn't equal happy ending

percdm

I think lydia is going to die

timstwrt

probably

percdm

I mean, it'll feel at least a little satisfying

timstwrt

it's weird, and a testament to the show, that you think an outcome where everyone is killed would be too pretty an ending

percdm

Ha, yeah

If walt's actions have lingering consequences, then he has a legacy (at least somewhat)

And having a legacy is something he desired

so I guess someone usurping heisenberg would rob him of that

Sorry, my thoughts are heading tangential

If it wraps up more neatly, then all he did had no lasting impact on the world at large

timstwrt

right

percdm

And he ruined the lives of everyone close to him, including himself

Could it end with walt once again defeating all of his criminal foes, but clearly having lost his family

King of an empire that will die with him

timstwrt

no, he dies

percdm
You think he has to die violently?

Or at least at the hands of someone else?

timstwrt

no

just die

the show has been about walt's impending death

percdm

Yeah, you are right, he has to die

BC is going to reveal the name of the eagle, which should be the most suspenseful part of the gameday festivities

timstwrt

We’re going to lose…huge

Oh, Right...The Cupboard's Bare

percdm

that game went exactly as we predicted it would before the season started and not at all how we predicted on friday

timstwrt

i have a couple of thoughts

first of all, it was disappointing, but not angering

they have better players

and, you could (i will) pretty much give addazio a pass for this year, because he wasn't inheriting much

but the end of the first half was a nightmare

and it wouldn't have changed the outcome, because of the aforementioned talent disparity

but what a coaching clusterfuck

percdm

no, it would not have changed the outcome, but it would have changed the complexion of the game for a while

the sound was on at the bar i was at, but i have no idea what transpired

timstwrt

constantly killing the coach is tiresome. i'm tired of it. but the players are totally overmatched in that setting, and the coach needs to be at his absolute best. addazio was not

so, that may have been revealing, or not

percdm

it seemed like pre-fumble, it made sense to use the timeouts after 2nd and 3rd downs

i don't know how the fumble would change that

timstwrt

it should not have

percdm

we agree that the talent disparity was the driving force in the game, but i want to touch on some more of the coaching

the offensive was ridiculously predictable, and it wasn't working. usc stacked the box and shut down the run, but every first down was yet another running play

i have no problem with calling 50 run plays against wake forest or uconn, but when its not working, it's not just going to magically start working by doing it more

timstwrt

i go the other way on this

well, kinda

i don't like the offense, but i knew i wasn't going to like the offense

we knew what we were getting

the rushing every first down was a problem, and they need more variety

but it's understandable to a certain degree that you're trying to get your team into manageable second and third down situations on the road against a more talented opponent

if USC was poised to crumble, it would have been due to not giving a shit

the way to dial into not giving a shit is to make them work until they pass a point of caring

it didn't work, but it's not stupid

percdm

i get that BC is going to be a run first team under addazio, and i get that he wants to get to manageable 2nd and 3rd downs

but when it is clearly not working, you have to try something else

and against a talented defense like usc's, variety is essential

timstwrt

i feel like "try something else" means that you're paying lip service to the talent disparity

our quarterback isn't good

we have no depth

it's not like they ran the ball all the time despite having teddy bridgewater under center

rettig can't make the throws

percdm

no, the talent disparity we expected was on full display, and i know that bc lacks playmakers and depth

but, lining up 3 tight ends and running right at 11 guys in the box on first down when those guys are superior athletes is never going to work

unless its some kind of triple option attack

timstwrt

i'm not sure what alternative you see. the game was over when marquise lee was sprinting up the sideline in the second quarter

the rest is window dressing

again, i don't like the offense, but get used to it. this is what we signed up for.

percdm

i disagree, things like that touchdown are going to happen when you blitz a lot. the game wasn't over until the third quarter

its not just that the offense is boring, i'm fine with boring, if it is effective

we were both al skinner fans

timstwrt

you're out of your mind

there was no way we could play from behind in that game and win

nothing was going to be effective

percdm

the usc offense didn't start to own the bc defense until late in the third quarter, when teh defense was exhausted from being on the field all game

timstwrt

BC wasn't a couple of adjustments away

percdm

i'm not saying bc was a couple of adjustments away, but it wasn't over until it was a three score game

regardless, that's not the point

the point is that the offense is bad...or at least not capable of competing with a talented defense

timstwrt

USC had 230 yards of offense in the first half, 280 in the second

but if the offense is bad, then you have to go with your strength

which is williams, and maybe amidon on screens

but the latter is going to get blown up against super talented teams

percdm

the offense ran 23 plays in the first half

and 27 plays in the second half

timstwrt

what is your point?

percdm

i don't think going williams first was the way to go

he had 17 carries for 38 yards, that's 2.2 yards a carry

timstwrt

17 carries isn't even that many

rettig completes fifty percent of his passes against wake, and you want them throwing all over the coliseum

it would've been 52-7

BC ISN'T GOOD ENOUGH

that's the headline

the rest of this is complaining about the strategy for the sake of conversation

better strategy and they could've lost 35-14

or 52-7

hard to say which way that cuts

percdm

but they're going to play other teams with talented defenses that maybe aren't as talented as usc's

timstwrt

and lose

percdm

is the gameplan going to be williams on first down

timstwrt

because they aren't very good

spoiler alert: that's how this goes

i'd like to see some more playaction on first down, but the QB hasn't shown me that it's going to be particularly effective

percdm

early in the game, they rolled out rettig and hit amidon for one of his two catches, that looked like something to go back to

timstwrt

the best case scenario for this season remains the same as it ever was: beat the four teams we're better than, hope to squeak out a couple of wins that we shouldn't and go to a bowl game

percdm

at some point, i would have liked to see more targeting of amidon, even if usc was focused on shutting him down

it's frustrating to watch them stack the box and completely shut down the run, and then be able to key on amidon on clear passing downs

but, you are right, the solution there is in more talent

timstwrt

yes, it's frustrating. the reason it's frustrating isn't because BC isn't being clever enough

*but the reason

percdm

but lesser teams do beat better teams by being more clever sometimes. they rarely knock off more talented opponents by trying to run right over them

timstwrt

two weeks until FSU....maybe addazio will implement the spread

percdm

if he wants to try to be competitive, he should implement some interesting plays

i'd settle for an end around, since he'll apparently have to keep it on the ground

at least give me this: amidon, as the best offensive player, should rarely, if ever, come off the field

timstwrt

sure...i'd be fine with him under center and running the read option

if you want to get "interesting"

percdm

that might have been more effective

anyway, you are sticking to 5-7 on the season? i am, i don't think anything has changed appreciably since before the usc game

timstwrt

maybe addazio can create a whole new roster with his mind

percdm

isn't that what being a dude is all about?

timstwrt

speaking of terrible BC offense, did you know that doug martin is the head coach at new mexico state?

how the fuck does that happen?

he must be an incredible interview

percdm

yeah, also, it's new mexico st

although, that'd be a potential loss on our schedule with a different coach

timstwrt

definitely does not matter...he went 29-53 as kent state head coach, then coach an abysmal BC offense to 2-12...that's a trajectory to FCS coordinator, not FBS head coach

he and kiffin could run cults

percdm

if i had to choose one, kiffin's would be more exciting 

A Hero Rises from the Ashes to Defeat an Unstable Villian with a Punchable Face

timstwrt

i hated almost everything about the frank spaziani era, almost from the moment it started, but i never really hated him. i can't imagine what it would have been like if, in addition to being a terrible coach, he was a smug, failing upward asshole with the world's most punchable face.

i don't know what made me think of that...who are we playing this week?

percdm

i have no sympathy for the kiffin haters among the usc faithful. maybe it's because the wounds of the spaz era are too raw, or maybe it's because they're usc

i'm 90% sure it's because they are usc

timstwrt

150%

percdm

he really has that program in an enjoyable kind of disarray

who would have thought even a week ago that we'd be talking about this being a winnable game for the eagles?

timstwrt

at this point, it would seem shocking if we lose (this is not remotely true)

it's not that they lost to washington state, a terrible team

but they scored 7 points!

percdm

and as i saw noted somewhere, it's not like washington st did anything special or played out of their minds

usc just let wsu's shitty defense shut them down

timstwrt

well, they are platooning quarterbacks

which has a long history of success in college football

percdm

platooning quarterbacks is a totally viable option

in video games

despite the fact that usc seems to be imploding, there is still a strong argument that they should win this game

they are more talented, and they are playing at home after a disappointing loss

they should be really amped up to play a game they previously would not have been particularly amped up to play

timstwrt

i don't think they do "amped"

percdm

you don't think the team will rally around their coach, and come out with something to prove?

timstwrt

has anyone anywhere ever rallied around lane kiffin?

percdm

i mean, the bc players never did it for spaz, but i hear that happens at the college level

timstwrt

well

the BC players seemed to like spaz, but were unable to rally around him because they were recruited by spaz

the USC players are talented, but they probably hate their coach and don't have a quarterback

since we still have those same spaz players, this feels like a tossup

i would expect USC to win 24-13

percdm

yeah, the spaz era recruits are what have me concerned

timstwrt

which i guess is not a tossup in any sense

percdm

i have a much closer game and a diferent outcome, 17-16 BC

timstwrt

the BC defense has been good for the better part of seven quarters

i said i would EXPECT a different outcome....i will be picking BC 16-13

because why not

percdm

haha, that's a good reason

i agree that the defense has looked good, although it was against villanova and wake forest

timstwrt

my main concern is a USC special teams or defensive score...just some fluke play where we get reminded that they have a lot more talent

percdm

back to the defense for a second, wake forest looked like a rec league flag football team that instituted the option 20 minutes before the game...so it is hard to judge exactly how effective the defense is

but they have looked good, and they snatched up the turnovers when the opportunity presented itself

i too am worried about usc's talent, especially on defense

this is the real test of the offense, especially since only wiliams and amidon have stepped up so far

timstwrt

i expect one terrible rettig INT, probably on a pass to the outside where someone in the USC secondary cuts in front of it

leading to the aforementioned defensive TD

percdm

i think that is the kind of thing bc can't let happen

because i think with the aggressive defense we play, usc will get one big offensive touchdown

and i don't see bc scoring a whole lot of points

timstwrt

there are two things i learned from the internet relating to things we've discussed

USC has picked a QB, and it's kessler

and their players held a players-only meeting on sunday, and marquise lee made it clear to the media that kiffin didn't know about it, and wasn't invited

so i stand by my lack of rally

percdm

fair enough, i knew kessler had been deemed the starter, but i'm still not sure if that means both qbs won't play

timstwrt

knowing kiffin, it probably means he's in for the first play before giving way for wittek

percdm

maybe the players meeting was about rallying around each other...i expect the trojans to be fired up

but just one big bc play or one usc mistake could devastate them

timstwrt

the USC id is very manic depressive

percdm

the product of crazy is usually more crazy

timstwrt

i will be reasonably ok with any scenario where BC beats the spread, which last i saw was 15

losing 28-14 in the coliseum would not be terrible for a team that lost at west point a year ago

percdm

earlier today i saw the spread at 14 and the over/under at 43...i think gamblers should be taking BC and the under

losing to usc won't hurt the program at all, even if usc is in shambles

but beating usc would be a big deal

timstwrt

basically nothing this year can hurt the program

already matched last year's win total

nothing on field, that is. some sort of jonestown massacre situation would probably hurt recruiting

percdm

haha. that would set the program back, but not as much as spaz did. i think the most significant sign of success for addazio will be when we stop comparing his teams to the spaz era

timstwrt

or if he punches lane kiffin in the face

then he'd be national hero steve addazio

feted from coast to coast

percdm

even by edsbs?

timstwrt

spencer hall would write a thousand words comparing him to robert the bruce 

percdm

i want to read those words

BC 17-USC 16, addazio national hero...i'm excited

timstwrt
you (three people) heard it here first

Linebacker/Fullback/Receiver, Oh My

timstwrt

wake is kind of a must-win game

to avoid a tailspin

since it's entirely possible that we'll get mauled in three of the following four games

percdm

i completely agree

really, USC through VaTech is daunting

timstwrt

yeah...3-5 going into new mexico state would be ok progress

4-4 would be a dream

percdm

beat wake, and beat army, then just need to take down north carolina or virginia tech

its not a crazy dream

timstwrt

it's a pretty crazy dream

the odds of us being 4-4 have to be less than 5%

percdm

i'm not sure i could put a number on it, but i expect bc to beat wake forest and army

timstwrt

you also didn't watch the game

percdm

pulling one upset in 5 games isn't crazy

i only saw the highlights

timstwrt

we no longer have the slanted numbers

which is pleasant on the eye

percdm

that's great, that was terrible

although it was about the 40th ugliest thing about last year's team

what did you see that you liked the most, and what did you see that you liked the least?

timstwrt  

the defense is a work in progress, dudes seemed to be still learning schemes

the offensive strategy i didn't like, but i didn't expect to

percdm

was it just the sheer volume of runs

or that it was a lot of running considering they weren't big gainers?

timstwrt

more volume....williams had a pretty big game

i think he averaged five a carry

addazio just made a big deal about how he was going to play to the personnel, and he did not play to the personnel

rettig barely threw downfield at all

i think his longest completion in the first half was a screen

percdm

but i do know that in the second half there was a play action td to amidon

and, there was a nice pass play to amidon called back for a chop block

maybe he thought they would just run over villanova

and had to adjust at halftime

which would be a nice change of pace

timstwrt 

amidon did factor in a lot more in the second half

but it still seemed to be a lot underneath

percdm

i have two thoughts, but these are coming from a guy who watched the game on his phone

1. bc played better on both sides of the ball in the second half

2. amidon is the guy, more so than rettig

timstwrt

i don't really know what you mean by the latter

percdm

he is the real playmaker, and the offense should focus on getting him the ball so he can make things happen

as opposed to putting it all on rettig and having him spread the ball around

timstwrt 

well, i'm pretty sure bubble screens to amidon against florida state and clemson will work differently than they did against villanova

so rettig is going to have to be throwing downfield some of the time, and to some other players

wolford is the only other receiver to catch more than one pass

villanova is the game where you're supposed to be able to spread it around

percdm

i get that to an extent, but if amidon is wide open, you're going to get the ball to your best receiver

timstwrt

so you have 13 catches by amidon, 6 by a guy who was a linebacker a minute ago, and a few guys with one. doesn't seem like a recipe for sustained success in the ACC.

percdm

unless you think amidon is a bona fide all-acc receiver

timstwrt

nope, even then

you also don't have to "think" that amidon is all-ACC...he's reigning all-ACC

percdm

and i think he will be again...i think he can carry the passing game

timstwrt 

but look at least year's other all-ACC receiver. deandre hopkins had sammy watkins across the field, taking some attention and catching probably 60 (definitely too lazy to look that up) balls

amidon can carry the passing game like he did last year, to two wins

to have success in conference, there are going to have to be other legitimate wideout options

sammy watkins caught 57 passes

spiffy evans is on pace for 12

percdm

wolford is on pace for 72

timstwrt  

i know you didn't watch the game, but you know that wolford is a fullback, right?

he's a 235 pound fullback. i don't think he'll be stretching the field.

percdm

how did he end up with that many catches, i only saw one in the highlights?

i'm not saying rettig doesn't need to spread the ball around more to win in the acc, i'm just saying that amidon should be the focal point of the passing game

i expect to see a lot of plays planned around getting the ball to amidon

timstwrt 

so when i said "so you have 13 catches by amidon, 6 by a guy who was a linebacker a minute ago, and a few guys with one. doesn't seem like a recipe for sustained success in the ACC," amd you responded "unless you think amidon is a bona fide all-acc receiver," you were actually saying that rettig needs to spread the ball around more to win in the ACC?

because that was my point, the one that you contradicted

percdm

my comment was too black and white. the point i was trying to make is that i think that bc can be successful with amidon pulling down the bulk of the receptions in a run first offense. i think a passing game focused on amidon can be successful in the acc. but, i do agree with you that another receiver needs to step up and become a viable option

i'm not so worried about 13 of 23 of rettig's completions going to amidon

timstwrt 

amidon's great, they need to get him the ball as much as possible

one aspect of doing that aeffectively is developing other options

percdm 

wake should force the offense to work more, so there should be a little more creativity in the playcalling

timstwrt

in any event, those are issues that teams that aren't named wake forest will exploit

i'd be surprised if we lost to wake at home on a saturday night

percdm

*friday night

which will be a different feeling for the fans

timstwrt

right

percdm

i think it will create a little more excitement in alumni

i agree that we should take care of business against wake

they'll obviously have a lot more talent than villanova, but a lot less than what we are going to see later in the year

i think it'll be a better game to gauge where the team is at talent-wise, as well as the schemes

timstwrt

yeah, i think so. spaz did a lot of damage, and this isn't going to be an eight win team overnight. if we win friday, play solid-but-overmatched against USC, FSU and clemson and get to the week off before UNC at 3-3, that's a fantastic start for addazio.

percdm

i'd be happy with that, and i think every other bc fan would be too

i think the really scary thing is how thin the team is

we already talked about the current receiver situation

then, when i was looking at the box score, i noticed the two back-up running backs had 12 carries for 15 yards

timstwrt

dudeck was....not good

percdm

rouse couldn't have been much better

1.8 yards/carry for rouse to 1.3 for dudeck

one thing that has to happen for addazio to keep the team competitive is that we have to get lucky with injuries

but assuming we do, i think we should be 3-3 at the halfway mark

ok, time for mostly-baseless speculation:

what is BC's final record?

timstwrt

6-6 would be the far end of reasonable hope for the season

i'd say 5-7

win all the ones they should, then one of the last three

percdm

yeah, i keep thinking 5-7, but when i look at the schedule, i can see bc taking 2 of the last 3...i guess i'll go 6-6

i know its early in the week and you haven't watched the wake forest-presbyterian footage yet, but score of friday's game?

timstwrt

24-16

percdm

i agree on the score, so i'll add a prediction or two: 1. the defense will give up a huge play for a touchdown 2. the defense will score a td or set-up an easy td 3. amidon will have 11 receptions for 200+ yards and scream "that's how you win the acc" to a camera in the end zone

timstwrt

4. spiffy evans will look sad